Too close to call for the last 3 years, 2012 seems likely to follow the same route.
Pre-season odds: Durham 4-1, Somerset 5-1, Lancs 9-2, Notts 6-1, Warwks 6-1, Surrey 7-1
Last years champions to hold onto their title?
Lancashire's biggest plus is their coach Peter Moores, who guided an aging team with no star names, and who many tipped for relegation, to win the title. There can now be no doubt that he is an excellent cricket coach, despite his struggles with the England team. But, can I see Lancashire winning in 2012? No. I think 2011 represented a unique environment which helped Lancashire to the title. All their home games were played at out-grounds where their experienced pros really helped win games in the conditions provided by these result friendly environments. They will not have this benefit this year. Their experienced, but an aging team is now a year older, and their 38 year old captain and strike bowler Glen Chapple will struggle to maintain his outstanding form from last year as injuries catch up with him. They should be boosted by the availability of Ashwell Prince, the South African middle order batsman who has failed to hold onto his test birth. Prince still holds onto his central contract from cricket SA, but is unlikely to play unless injuries the South African middle order prompt a call up. My verdict: a solid mid-table finish for the Red Roses.
Will Warwickshire build on near-miss
Warwickshire will need to hit the ground running to challenge again. They were helped in 2011 by Varun Chopra's excellent early season form with the bat, and he has had a great winter playing domestic cricket in Sri Lanka. However, I did feel that Warwickshire rode their luck at times last year with the lower order providing several great escapes, this is not the form of champions and you cannot rely on this in perpetuity. There can be no doubt of Chris Woaks talent, and I fully expect him to kick on this year, so keep an eye out for him in and around the England ODI team. So what are their chances? I am yet to be convinced that there is enough batting at the top of the order in this team to see a challenge this season, but I do think the disappointment of last year and the never-say-die attitude shown last year will spur them on. Verdict: will come up just short once more.
Notts strengthen their credentials
2010 champions Notts will be major contenders this seson. They have secures services of Australian batter Adam Voges for a 5th Season and have also landed the signatures of England youngster James Taylor from Leicestershire, and the experienced head of Michael Lumb from Hampshire in the close season. Taylor represents one of the most exciting batting prospects in England today, he is a former winner of the cricket writers' young cricketer of the year, and will play for England in the future. Despite an unorthadox style (he has a tendency to play to leg) Taylor is a classy operator and has real character. I recall a dogged innings in a lost cause against Surrey at the Oval in 2011. Facing a fired up Chris Tremlett, who was straining for an England recall, and with the Leics team collapsing around him, he was last man out for 52.
Notts have a settled captain in the form of Chris Read, if the bowling unit can fire this season, and Trent Bridge often provides assistance to the bowlers, Notts will challenge. Verdict: my hot favorites.
Can Somerset Break the Voodoo?
Annual near-missers Somerset may also challenge this year, but will struggle again to take 20 wickets at their home ground of Taunton, especially after loosing Murali Kartik to Surrey. The Championship points system rewards results and not draws, and Somerset will struggle on the batsman friendly conditions at home without a world class spinner. Rumors of signing of Ricky Ponting might mean a top order of Trescothick and the former Australian captain, so we may yet be in for some exciting times in the south west. Keep your eye also on Joss Buttler, Craig Kieswetter as young English talent in the batting line-up. My verdict: failure to convert draws to wins will ultimately deny Somerset of the title... probably. Expect them to lose fewer games than any other team though.
Do Durham have the desire?
There can be no doubt bookies favourite Durham have some great names, but I look at the nature of the team and wonder whether the drive is there to reach the top? To win the Championship requires guts, determination and a will to succeed. In my mind there are two types of players that deliver performances of this nature, seasoned county pros who are not on the international radar and for whom the Champo represents the peak of acheivements, and youngsters who are desperate to show the talent, enthusiasm and application required to make it into the international set-up. Unlike the Lancashire pros last year, most Durham players already have a winners medals from 2008 and 2009. Will the desire be there from Graeme Onions, Steve Harmison and Paul Collingwood? After all, these guys are all Ashes winners, can they motivate themselves for county games on rainy Mondays at the Riverside? I'm not sure. Phil Mustard's and Liam Plunkett's internal hopes have all but disappeared, and they have champo winners medals already. The only players who fits the bill is the hugely talented young English all-rounder Ben Stokes, who is on the verge of breaking into the England set-up, and he has been been struggling with injury issues over the winter. Nope, my verdict: I predict another season of disappointment at the Riverside.
Outside chancers
Surrey were both promoted last year, and both look to have a handy set-ups with plenty of capital behind them. Coached by Chris Adam's and with the youthful Rory Hamilton-Brown as captain, they look to be building a championship winning team, but not quite yet. They are lacking stability at the top of the order, despite the excellent signing of Jacque Rudolph over the winter, especially if they lose him and Steven Davies to international call-ups. Their bowling options of Lewis, Kartik, Tremlett, Dernbach, Meaker, Arafat, and De Bruyn look the strongest in the division on paper, especially if Dernbach and Tremlett remain surplus to England requirements. Verdict: an outside shot that may be worth a punt at 7-1
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